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The Quick & Dirty On A Possible Alvin Kamara Regression

The Scenario

This is the first time since Ricky Bobby graced the big screen in 2006 that the New Orleans Saints are without Drew Brees, and it is possible that the player to suffer the most in fantasy football from his departure is Alvin Kamara.

A Deeper Look:

In the past 2 seasons, Alvin Kamara has played about 8 and half games without Drew Brees starting in Week 2 of 2019. Between Teddy Bridgewater, Taysom Hill, and a sprinkle of Jameis Winston, Kamara would have produced the following stat line if you extrapolate his totals without Drew Brees across a 16 game season:

  • Rushing: 217 attempts, 915 yards, 8 TDs

  • Receiving: 82 targets, 62 receptions, 429 yards, 2 TDs

This would give Kamara about 256.4 total points (16.02 PPG across 16 games). Depending on the year, this would put Kamara somewhere between a RB6 to RB8 finish. While this isn't a huge sample size, it's the best available data the community has to work with, and as such should be considered carefully. The most concerning part is the dip in Points Per Game from 22.2 ppg (in PPR formats) over the past 3 seasons to just 16.02 ppg.

The Bottom Line:

Look, we're not saying don't draft Kamara in the first round. Not at all - draft Kamara with confidence knowing his floor is at worst an RB8 or RB9 finish in 2021 (assuming he plays all of his games). But given the ambiguity in New Orleans, we may be looking at Kamara's last good season. Of all the Running Backs going in the first round, it can be argued that Kamara has the widest range from floor to ceiling which certainly creates some room for concern going into drafts this year.

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