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The Commish Bets Week 1 Lock - Green Bay @ Minnesota

Green Bay @ Minnesota

Pick: Vikings +1.5 (-110) & over 48

Nothing like a divisional rivalry game in the first week of the season to get the juices flowing. Last year the Packers and Vikings both split 1 game a piece, Vikings covering the spread the first game at +1 (winning the game) and Packers covering the spread -6 the second game. Week 1 I am taking the Vikings +1.5 (-110) on top of taking the over 48. In fact I would take the Vikings outright to win this game. With Vegas giving the Vikings +1.5 they are saying that the Packers will have the slight edge on this game while even being the away team.

Couple of key notes to factor in. The loss of Davante Adams, Allen Lazard doubtful, Packers Defense and the new regime of the Vikings. Last year Davante Adams absolutely torched the Vikings going for 18 receptions, 3 touchdowns, and 251 yards in two games. Oh did I mention this was against Patrick Peterson the 13th ranked best corner in the NFL. Welp, the Vikings do not need to worry about Adams anymore.

If you have listened to our episodes you should know Desmond’s “number 1 rule…never bet against Rodgers” WELL I AM DOING IT! With Lazard being doubtful heading into game one, Rodgers will be looking at Sammy Watkins, Romeo Doubs (Rookie), Christian Watson (Rookie), Amari Rodgers, and Randall Cobb. The Vikings defense will not have to worry about any top 5 wide receiver going up against them. Patrick Peterson will be on an island locking down whoever comes his way, while the other Corners/Safeties will take care of the rest. Now don’t get me wrong I do believe that Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones will find the end zone, but not up to the rate the Vikings will be scoring.

Yes, I know the Packers have a Top-10 defense coming into this season, but I do not think this is going to impact this particular game–Vikings offense will be too hot to handle. The Vikings Offense made extreme leaps over the season by adding Head Coach Kevin O’Connel coming off a Super Bowl with the Rams as their Offensive Coordinator the season before. Not only was he the Offensive Coordinator for the Rams, but [fun fact] he sat beside Tom Brady during his tenure in the NFL while in New England. Kevin O’Connel led the Rams Offense to being the 7th ranked best while dropping 27.1 points per game on defenses. He will put every player in a position to succeed, especially Justin Jefferson who is the Vikings top Wide Receiver.

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