Targets at ADP: NFC South Edition
Updated: Jul 26, 2020
As draft season approaches, it's important to assess a player's value compared to their Average Draft Position (ADP). I'm going through division by division and picking my favorite player at each position once accounting for their ADP.
Drew Brees (ADP QB11, 101 Overall)
Runner Up Teddy Bridgewater (ADP QB23, 172 Overall)
Chuck Cook - USA TODAY Sports
Brees is another perfect target at QB. Going in the 8th round, you can solidify your RB and WR groups before drafting Brees as an anchor at QB. Brees was 8th in PPG last season and has added Emmanuel Sanders. A healthy Alvin Kamara in the passing game should also boost Brees’ output. Eric, Co-Host of The Commish, has been targeting these NFC South players, expecting a shootout in almost every divisional matchup. Brees is no exception.
Unlike Eric, there’s one team I’m profoundly concerned about in the NFC South. The Carolina offense is not one of my favorite groups to target in 2020. I don’t love teams with first-year NFL Head Coaches as they tend to run fewer plays than average. That said, Bridgewater in a SuperFlex league feels like an ideal second QB. He should be relatively safe week-to-week, but may not have the big weeks you’re hoping for in single QB leagues.
Mike Evans (ADP WR10, 30 Overall)
Runner Up Calvin Ridley. (ADP WR16, 40 Overall)
Kim Klement - USA TODAY Sports
Has everyone forgotten what Mike Evans has done since entering the NFL? Evans is averaging over 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns over his career. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have added Tom Brady to the offense, and yet people expect Evans to decline. We’ve seen Brady succeed with the few deep threats he’s had in his career. With Brady, the Tampa offense can expect fewer turnovers, and therefore more plays on offense. Mike Evans has finished as a WR1 in half-PPR in 4 of his 6 seasons. I don’t see why that trend ends in 2020.
Calvin Ridley has found his way on here, and it is somewhat by default. I do like most pieces of this Atlanta offense, and with Julio Jones’ touchdown issues, Ridley could eat. I have him around Wide Receiver 16 in my rankings, so I’ll take him at his ADP and be content.
Todd Gurley (RB15, 27 Overall)
Runner Up Ronald Jones (RB32, 76 Overall)
Tim Fuller - USA TODAY Sports
As I mentioned with Ridley, I’m quite fond of this Atlanta offense. With Hooper out the door, Gurley has an opportunity to see plenty of targets in Atlanta. We’ve discussed the correlation between Tight End targets and Running Back targets in length on the podcast. While his efficiency was down in 2019, he should still see some high volume in both the ground game and the air game. I think Gurley has a great chance to finish as an RB1. If I like a WR in the late second, I’m hoping Gurley gets back to me in the third as my RB2.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn wasn’t the RB I wanted to see Tampa Bay draft. Vaughn is a well rounded back, but Ronald Jones should still have the first crack at this offense. Arians and Brady will hold Jones accountable for his mistakes, but he flashed his potential in 2019. Jones was young going into his rookie season, and he’s actually younger than Vaughn. Still, nobody seems to care that Ronald Jones had over 1,000 yards and lost more than 200 more on plays called back.
Hayden Hurst (ADP TE8, 92 Overall)
Runner Up Jared Cook (ADP TE10, 117 Overall)
Gail Burton - Associated Press
For most of the offseason, Hurst represented a value at Tight End. As his ADP creeps up, I’m backing off. I wouldn’t say I like any Tight Ends in this division. There are too many better options at the position. I’ve crossed off the two I’d choose if I had to, but I’ll walk out without one of these NFC South Tight Ends.