Targets at ADP: NFC North Edition
Updated: Jul 19, 2020
As draft season approaches, it's important to assess a player's value compared to their Average Draft Position (ADP). I'm going through division by division and picking my favorite player at each position once accounting for their ADP. Aaron Rodgers (ADP QB12, 109 Overall)
Runner Up Matthew Stafford (ADP QB14, 110 Overall)
Aaron Rodgers had a down year in 2019, and his 2018 season wasn’t quite up to his standards. While he’s historically had a Touchdown Rate over 6%, his combined rate was under 4.5% in 2018-19. Even with these disappointing seasons, he finished as QB6 in 2018 and QB10 2019. While he could continue to decline, you no longer have to pay up for the ceiling of Aaron Rodgers. He still has the potential to be a top 5 QB in 2020. This year you’re getting him in the 12th round of your draft, and it’s a steal.
At the beginning of 2019, Matt Stafford went from a streaming option to a weekly starter. From weeks 1 to 9, Stafford was QB6 overall and in PPG. Unfortunately, his season ended abruptly, and he missed time for the first season since 2010.
Stafford’s 2020 schedule starts a bit rough against the Bears and Packers, but things lighten up in week 3. I don’t love him with that start, but he’s better than Cousins and Trubisky.
Justin Jefferson (ADP WR51, 133 Overall)
Runner Up Kenny Golladay. (ADP WR7, 27 Overall)
Jason Getz - USA TODAY Sports
The Minnesota offense isn’t particularly exciting, but Justin Jefferson should have a role carved out. With Stefon Diggs in Buffalo, Justin Jefferson should take over as the 2nd target in this offense. Before the NFL Draft, Justin Jefferson felt like one of the most pro-ready wide receivers. His stats at LSU with Joe Burrow were incredible, and he’s almost guaranteed an 85% snap share in week 1. I like Jefferson to have some great opportunities against the second corner on most teams.
To get Kenny Golladay, you’ll have to invest an early pick. What I want to mention with Kenny G is how comfortable I am with his production for 2020. If you are lucky enough to get two good RBs followed up by Kenny Golladay as your WR1, you should be excited. I have Kenny has my WR5 for 2020, and I love being able to get him in the third round. If you want to hear more on Kenny G, jump to 09:40 in the first WR Pod.
Tarik Cohen (RB38, 94 Overall)
Runner Up Kerryon Johnson (RB43, 108 Overall)
Tommy Gilligan - USA TODAY Sports
I’ll preface this by letting readers know I’ve never liked David Montgomery, and I’ve always liked Kerryon Johnson. There's probably some bias in my Runner-Up Selection. An honorable mention is due to Alexander Mattison, but Dalvin Cook’s holdout should end with the new CBA in place. Aaron Jones and Dalvin Cook should both be nice, but at their ADP I like these two guys.
Tarik Cohen, in PPR formats, is still one of my favorite targets. While he finished outside the top 24 in 2019, he’s only two years removed from his RB11 finish in 2018. David Montgomery had 267 touches compared to Tarik Cohen’s 143. Even still, Cohen finished only 7 PPR points behind Montgomery. If Montgomery continues to disappoint, the touches should begin to move in Cohen’s favor, and he could handily perform as a top 24 back on the season.
Kerryon Johnson has just been forgotten about. 2019 was injury-riddled, and even when Johnson was on the field, he flat out sucked on the ground. The introduction of DeAndre swift won’t help Johnson overall, but it could motivate him to try and earn a second contract somewhere else. Kerryon’s ceiling is nowhere close to what it felt going into 2019, but he could return flex value in a pass-catching role.
Irv Smith Jr. (ADP TE23, 180 Overall)
Runner Up T.J. Hockenson (ADP TE16, 137 Overall)
Ben Ludeman - USA TODAY Sports
If Justin Jefferson doesn’t have a solid rookie year, it’s because Irv Smith Jr. has officially broken out. While he didn’t do anything spectacularly in 2019, he has the athleticism to perform at the NFL level. As Rudolph continues to age, Smith’s role will grow. I’m likely a year early on Smith, but there’s not too many great options in the NFC North.
T.J. Hockenson’s boat looks an awful lot like Smith’s. After a week 1 explosion, Hock just disappeared for Detroit. He missed some time due to injury, but he was a polished Tight End at Iowa. There is a reason he was a top 10 pick in the NFL draft. Just like Irv, he probably needs another year to grow.