Targets at ADP: NFC East Edition
As draft season approaches, it's important to assess a players value compared to their Average Draft Position (ADP). I'm going through division by division and picking my favorite player at each position once accounting for their ADP.
Daniel Jones (ADP QB14, 116 Overall)
Runner Up Carson Wentz (ADP QB8, 94 Overall)
Daniel Jones is not close to being the most polished passer. He showed that in 2019 with a 62% completion rate and 12 interceptions. On top of that, Jones lacks ball security in the pocket. Turnovers lead to shortened drives. Shortened drives mean fewer yards and no touchdowns. That said, Daniel Jones had the 7th most rushing yards among quarterbacks, and he only played 13 games. Lamar Jackson had the 22nd most passing yards in 2019 and finished as the QB1. I only bring this up to prove that rushing yards at the QB Position are a glitch in the system. Daniel Jones will turn the ball over, but he will also run with the ball. He will also have improved weapons in 2020 as Engram, Barkley, Tate, and Shepard all missed time in 2019.
Carson Wentz is the runner up here, but it’s basically by default. Dak is appropriately a top 5 QB, but I won't draft a Quarterback that high. Dwayne Haskins just isn’t worth a pick in redraft. Wentz, in the 8th round, is a bit rich for my taste, but my hands are tied.
Derrius Guice (ADP RB35, 88 Overall)
Runner Up Ezekiel Elliot (ADP RB3, 3 Overall)
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The Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles all have Running Backs being drafted in the top 10 at the position. The remaining back in the NFC East belongs to the team that plays in Washington DC. I don’t love the risk involved with Guice. That said, he flashed his talent in the five games he played in 2019. Drafted as an RB3, he has the upside to be a top 15 Running Back in 2020. His hamstring is also the size of my chest. If you listened to our pod on Rookies we like at ADP, you’ll also notice I want Antonio Gibson for the many of the same reasons.
I threw Zeke in here as the runner up because he doesn’t get enough respect for his consistency. Week to week, year after year, he shows up for your team. I’d be happier to take him at 3 overall than Sanders at 10.
Michael Gallup (ADP WR33, 74 Overall)
Runner Up Golden Tate (ADP WR56, 155 Overall)
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Michael Gallup averaged the same points per game as Amari Cooper in 2019. He’s going 5 rounds later. Ceedee Lamb enters the picture, but Cobb departs. When you look at the Cowboys depth chart at Wide Receiver, you’ll only recognize those three names. If you expect Dak to be a top 5 fantasy QB, he’s going to need more than just Cooper to perform. Don’t be afraid to draft the WR2 in a high-powered offense, ask Chris Godwin.
Golden Tate deserves a shoutout. At 31 years old, Tate played 9 games with Daniel Jones. In those 9 games, he was on pace for 245 PPR points, which would’ve been good for WR17 on the season. I’m not saying he’ll finish in the top 20, but he’s another guy you can plug into your flex and feel comfortable.
Zach Ertz (ADP TE4, 59 Overall)
Runner Up Blake Jarwin (ADP TE19, 158 Overall)
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Zach Ertz was drafted in the 3rd and 4th round in 2017 and 2018. Ertz is getting close to the 6th round in 2020, and he’s still the #1 target on that team. I know the 2019 Eagles receiving corps was depleted, but he has been doing this for more than 1 season. Since 2017, Ertz has never disappointed your fantasy team, and I’m not going to bet that this is the year it does. I love Dallas Goedert, and he’ll be used near the goal line, but Ertz has seen 100+ targets every year since 2015. 2020 isn’t the year that’s going to stop.
Blake Jarwin is an exciting flier. As I mentioned above, there aren’t many pass-catchers in Dallas. Outside of the big 3 receivers and Zeke, I’m not sure who will catch the ball from Dak. Even if Jarwin only gets a 12% target share, he’d be looking at over 70 targets from Prescott in 2020.