[Pod+] PLAYOFFS?! – True Strength of Schedule heading into the fantasy playoffs

Over the past 13 weeks, The Commish team has joined efforts with the TCK Pod team to figure out the true strength of schedule for each team against each position. Here is the difference between our approach vs. a Yahoo or ESPN:

Yahoo/ESPN: These platforms look at the overall points against a team for that specific position. The flaw with this approach is they don’t account for the strength of that team’s performance against their opponents’ positional group on average. If that sounds confusing, lets break it down with an example:

We’re going to use Nick Chubb in Week 13 as an example. According to Yahoo, the Tennessee Titans are considered the 9th easiest opponent to RBs with fantasy points this season. They account for the overall points in total to RBs. While that’s good, these platforms don’t account for the RB schedule the Titans have faced in comparison to that RBs performance on average. Meaning, Nick Chubb should actually be expected to have a better game than his average on the season. Spoiler, he did. While the game script ultimately limited Chubb's touches, he was averaging 16.7 fantasy points leading into Week 13 and finished with 17.1 against the Titans.

Another way to look at the numbers—lets look a bit closer: in Week 3 the Titans gave up 30.7 total points to the RB position against the Vikings overall and 25.9 points to Dalvin Cook. On average, the Vikings RB position scores 29.6 points per game and more specifically, Dalvin Cook scores 22.8 points per game this season. When you look at the fact Tennessee gave up 30.7 points to the position, it looks like a terrible performance by the defense. When you take a step back and see that the Vikings RBs average 29.6, it’s actually not a bad game by the Titans. Specific to Dalvin Cook, Tennessee allowed 25.9 points in Week 3 which would be considered +3.1 more than Cooks’ average during the season.

The Commish/TCK Pod: This is what our efforts have accounted for—the total points against for a particular position while accounting for the total average points per game for that position per team. As a result, we understand how a team TRULY has performed versus their competition week-to-week during the season in comparison to that team’s season average.

True Strength of Schedule: See our spreadsheet here for our analysis heading into the playoffs to get an edge on your competition and also check out our video below to hear us break everything down in detail.