What's Changing Up Top: Christian McCaffrey
Updated: Jun 24, 2020
I'm here to remind you of the little changes that can make a big difference in performance year over year. The What’s Changing Up Top series of articles covers the highest projected Running Backs and just one or two points that might change your perspective on their 2020 outlook.
Michael Conroy, AP Photo
448.4 2019 Points//29.9 PPG//June 15th ADP of 1.8
What CMC did in 2019 was nothing short of legendary. With over 400 touches, Christian McCaffrey singlehandedly led teams to the fantasy playoffs. He had more points than any other player, including Lamar Jackson.
The arrival of Matt Rhule and Joe Brady means the departure of Ron Rivera and Norv Turner. While Rivera is a reliable NFL Coach, let's zone in on the Offensive Coordinator, Norv Turner. Throughout his career, Turner has religiously depended on ONE Running Back to do all the dirty work for his offense, which has led to excellent fantasy production. If you're reading this, you probably have heard of Ladainian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson. Under Norv Turner, these two backs were fantasy gold, and after Turner's departure, they still produced, proving that talent can win out. Prior to these two studs, Turner did the same thing. As the OC in Oakland in 2005, Turner's offense relied on Lamont Jordan, who played 14 games, pacing for 391 touches over 16. In 2006, Turner's 49ers depended on 398 touches from Frank Gore. These are just two of the numerous examples in Turner’s tenure.
So what should we expect from CMC in 2020? The guy is still going to be a freak athlete, and similar to LT and AP, he's still going to be a fantasy star. At the end of the season, he’ll be in the mix for the RB1, but I'm expecting a drop in snap %. Under two years with Turner, CMC played 91% and 93% of snaps. Matt Rhule is going to smarten up and protect his franchise RB. I expect his snap % to fall between 83-85%, similar to the likes of Ezekiel Elliot.